Understanding Implied Odds

Implied odds are central to good poker play, but many players often find themselves wondering "What are implied odds?". The term implied odds describes the potential future profit you might show on any particular hand from the betting still to come. This article defines implied odds and analyzes common situations in which they become important when playing.

We start with some examples of implied odds situations in the context of making calls when you do not have the ‘correct’ pot-odds to do so. Next we look at the effect of stack sizes on implied-odds poker situations. Finally the playing style of your opponents is taken into account.

What are Implied Odds?

A common implied-odds situation occurs when you have a flush draw but do not have the correct pot-odds to make the call on the flop. For example you hold 2 spades and 2 more appear on the flop – you have 9 ‘outs’ from 47 unseen cards to make your flush on the turn.

The odds are a little over 4/1 and an opponent bets $50 into a $100 pot, giving you 3/1 pot-odds. This call would show a loss over time based on pot-odds alone. However you expect that if you make the call you can win more bets by the end of the hand, this extra money can be used to calculate your implied odds.

For example if you estimate that over time you will make an extra $150 from this opponent when you make your flush then the combination of your pot-odds and implied odds mean you would be getting 6/1 on the flop call. Clearly taking 6/1 on a 4/1 chance will show a profit over time.

How To Use Implied Odds To Your Advantage

Implied-odds are also used before the flop with hands such as small pairs and suited connectors. These hands are unlikely to be the best hand at the point at which you call a pre-flop raise. However, if you hit trips or a small straight you are likely to win a large pot by the river. That is to say the real odds you took at the time of the call were insufficient, however your implied odds made this an easy call.

The key factor with implied-odds situations is the stack size of both you and your opponent. For example calling a 3/1 bet with a flush draw on the turn may show a profit if you expect to win more bets after the river when you make your hand. However if your opponent is all in with the turn bet then calling would be unprofitable since there is no more money to be won.

With pre-flop hands you need to factor in your potential gain on those occasions when you hit your hand. With a small pair you may not get an opponent’s entire stack each time and may in fact be beaten by a stronger hand. The real odds of hitting trips is around 8/1 – to factor in the times you do not get rewarded you need to ensure that your implied odds are 10/1 or 12/1 in terms of the chips your opponent has left.

Opponents' Tendencies

Not all opponents offer the same implied odds. Back to the flush example, if your opponent is tight and timid they may fold when the 3rd flush card hits. In this case your initial call getting 3/1 will lose money over time – you did not have the implied-odds in this case. Conversely a wild and loose opponent may offer bigger implied odds than you need, chasing a long-shot draw may be profitable in the right circumstances against the right opponent.

To summarize, Implied-odds in poker are the extra bets above the current pot that you expect to win if you make your hand. These can be used with drawing hands, or with speculative pre-flop hands such as small pairs. The critical factors in assessing your potential implied-odds are the stack sizes and playing styles of your opponents.

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