Risk vs Reward in Poker Tournaments

The biggest dilemma facing any multi table tournament player is when to take those crucial risks to build a big stack. Many players simply get this important aspect of internet poker play wrong – often resulting in an early exit. This article examines the appropriate times to take risks in multi-table tournaments based on the rewards offered and suggests ways to make your tournament play less risky and more profitable.

We start by framing the risk against reward debate in the context of your overall objectives for the tournament. Secondly we look at some statistical facts concerning taking risks when you have a big mathematical edge. Finally we will cover some of the important factors that go into the decision to take a big risk, including fold-equity, stack sizes and your opponent’s tendencies.

Objectives for the Tournament

Multi-Table tournaments pay the top finishers a disproportionately high amount compared to those players who just make the money. The fact is that reaching the final table will pay you many times what you would get for sneaking into the money – this should therefore be your objective each time you sit down to play.

Taking risks is a necessary part of your strategy to reach the higher payouts, yet not all risks are equal. Even if your poker skills allow you to get all of your chips in the middle with a huge advantage then statistically you are more likely to bust out than move forward. An example will demonstrate; You get all-in 5 times, each time as either an 80% or a 70% favorite – with either an over-pair or a dominating ace.

Hand #1 – Your AA vs KK – 80% favorite.
Hand #2 – Your AK vs AJ – 70% favorite (Still in MTT 70% of 80% or 56%)
Hand #3 – Your QQ vs 77 – 80% favorite (Still in MTT 44.8%)
Hand #4 – Your JJ vs AJ – 70% favorite (Still in MTT 31.3%)
Hand #5 – Your KK vs AK – 70% favorite (Still in MTT 22%)

Even though you got your money in ‘good’ every time you are still on the rail some 78% of the time. Add just a single ‘coin flip’ to the above numbers and your chances are even further reduced.

Deciding When to Get it In

This does not mean that you should not play premium hands positively. Far from it, the key to understanding risk and reward in multi-table tournaments is to ask yourself whether you need to play for your whole stack on any one occasion.

Taking stabs at many small pots early on while there are many inexperienced opponents can grow your stack enough to have a ‘buffer’ to survive a big confrontation. Seeing flops in position with high implied-odds hands such as suited connectors can help you win a big pot while your opponent with an over-pair is drawing dead.

Leaving Yourself Outs

The key to managing risks in multi-table tournaments is to give your self more than one way to win. Instead of going for big all-in showdowns play in such a way as to win many small and medium sized pots. Accumulate chips so that an all-in will not see you go broke.

The basic example is when you semi-bluff with a strong draw, your opponent may well fold – but if they do not you may still win the hand – for example by making your flush. If played in position you may well be able to check behind on a later street, taking a free card to make your hand.

Stack Size

Stack size factors are important in risk taking. If you have a small stack then you are forced to take risks. The same works for your opponents, when you have accumulated chips so that that same risk will still leave you with a healthy stack you are in a great position to take positive expectation situations without the fear of busting out. Opponents with medium sized stacks are less likely to call you at any stage of the tournament – take advantage by stealing their blinds rather than risking all-in moves.

Opponents' Style

The final factor is opponents playing tendencies. Spotting a player who raises almost every hand and putting in a timely re-steal can be a far more effective way of winning chips than fighting the tight opponents.

To summarize, risk taking is a necessary part of tournament play. However constantly taking big risks will lead you to bust out the majority of the time – even when you get your chips in as favorite. Counter this by playing smaller pots, accumulating chips by stealing and adjusting to your opponents stack size and playing tendencies. You will still need to take the risks – but with a healthy chip stack you will be able to survive the beats and move towards the final table.

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